TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 1:09 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Texas State will win against Boise State by more than 1.5 points in their upcoming college football game. Currently, the probability of Texas State winning by over 1.5 points is 50.0%, while the probability of Texas State winning by over 2.5 points is 48.0% on Kalshi. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the Texas State vs Boise State game, as determined by the final point differential. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for October 31, 2026, as the result will directly determine market resolution and the final point spread.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the Texas State vs. Boise State college football game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market has a specific point spread threshold; if Boise State wins by exceeding the stated margin, the corresponding 'Boise St. wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes, while all others resolve to No. Conversely, if Texas State wins by exceeding their respective thresholds, the relevant 'Texas St. wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes, and all others to No. If neither team meets their respective thresholds, all markets resolve to No. Postponements are handled such that if the game commences within 48 hours of the original start time, markets remain open and resolve per the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing uncertainties.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders, tends to be more efficient and reflects the true probabilities as perceived by the crowd. However, sportsbook odds can still be valuable for comparison, as they represent the views of professional oddsmakers and can highlight potential discrepancies or areas of disagreement regarding the likely outcome of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the actual spread will be above or below the listed value. As more traders participate, the price of these contracts adjusts, converging towards a consensus expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability of the spread falling within a certain range, and the market’s depth indicates the level of confidence traders have in their predictions. The current price is determined solely by supply and demand on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Texas St. vs Boise St. game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The final spread will be compared to the market price on Kalshi to determine which contracts will pay out, and at what value. Traders will be able to see the results and their associated payouts shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game takes place. Significant news regarding player injuries on either the Texas St. or Boise St. teams would likely cause movement, as would changes in weather forecasts that could impact the style of play. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy could also affect trader sentiment. Finally, large-volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders could signal new information or a change in expectations, leading to price adjustments in this market.