TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 12:51 AM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a specific segment of a college football game between Texas State and Boise State. It centers on whether one team will outscore the other by a certain margin during the third quarter, reflecting potential momentum shifts or strategic adjustments in that period.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between Texas State and Boise State exclusively during the third quarter of their game scheduled for October 31, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin, ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points, with separate markets for both teams. Only points scored in the third quarter count toward the resolution. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the market remains active and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing changes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the likely outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be insightful, as prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of data and perspectives than sportsbooks.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final third-quarter spread of the Texas St. vs Boise St. game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sports organization, ensuring an objective and verifiable outcome. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their purchased contracts align with the actual spread at the end of the third quarter.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Texas St. or Boise St. teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to affect the game's conditions, could also move the market. Additionally, any shifts in public perception or expert analysis regarding the teams' strengths and weaknesses could influence trading activity and, consequently, the spread. Game day performance and in-game adjustments will also be key signals.