TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 12:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many touchdowns are caught by players from each team during a college football game. It focuses specifically on touchdowns scored by offensive players who receive the ball, excluding those scored after recovering someone else's fumble.
All markets resolve based on the total number of receiving touchdowns scored by either Texas A&M or Missouri in their scheduled game on Oct 10, 2026, including any overtime periods. A receiving touchdown is defined as one scored by the player who initially caught the ball; touchdowns scored after another player recovers a fumble by the intended receiver do not count, unless the receiver recovers their own fumble and scores. Successful two-point conversions are excluded from all counts. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, markets remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what’s immediately available to sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs, potentially leading to odds that more accurately predict the likelihood of teams scoring touchdowns. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments or the influence of public perception, offering opportunities for informed traders to capitalize on perceived mispricings. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks in response to new information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the likelihood of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to the game, the more the prices will likely converge towards the true probability, influenced by factors like team news and weather conditions. Traders aim to profit by buying low and selling high, or vice versa, based on their own analysis and risk tolerance.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which teams actually score touchdowns during the Texas A&M vs Missouri game. Official game statistics will be used to determine the number of touchdowns scored by each team, and this information will be used to determine if the market resolves in favor of one team or another. The outcome is determined by objective game results, ensuring a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Texas A&M or Missouri would be a major catalyst, as it directly affects their offensive capabilities. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is expected, could also influence the market, potentially favoring a run-heavy offense or impacting passing games. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also lead to price movements. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could also affect how traders assess the likelihood of touchdowns being scored.