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OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 3:55 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the outcome of a college football game between Texas A&M and Missouri, specifically analyzing the point differential in the final quarter of play. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which either team could win in the 4th quarter.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the 4th quarter (excluding overtime) of the Texas A&M vs Missouri college football game scheduled for Oct 10, 2026. For markets where Missouri wins by more than a specified margin (10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points), the market resolves to Yes if Missouri achieves that margin in the 4th quarter. Similarly, for markets where Texas A&M wins by more than a specified margin (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points), the market resolves to Yes if Texas A&M achieves that margin in the 4th quarter. Only points scored during the 4th quarter count toward these resolutions. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours, the markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd' and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a particular spread is likely, the price will move in that direction, potentially diverging from initial sportsbook offerings. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast probabilities, especially as an event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their contracts are settled in their favor. The more traders who believe a certain spread is likely, the higher the price of contracts representing that spread will climb, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the fourth quarter of the Texas A&M vs Missouri game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics reported by a recognized sports data provider. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual point spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contracts. Traders will receive $1 per contract for winning positions.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Texas A&M or Missouri teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is expected during the game, could also impact the spread. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift market sentiment. Public perception, as reflected in polls and expert analyses, might also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.