TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Test Match: South Africa vs Australia
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of South Africa vs Australia?

Volume:
$2,158,321

Australia

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 8:30 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Australia

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$536,737
N/A
N/A
$230,121
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Australia

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$36,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

South Africa

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$900,056
N/A
N/A
$614,586
Settled
No
polymarket

South Africa

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$106,378
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Draw/Tie

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$537,506
N/A
N/A
$199,627
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41,003
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of a Test cricket match between South Africa and Australia, scheduled to begin October 9, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of Australia winning is 100.0%, as aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. Resolution will be based on official match statistics reported by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Keep an eye on October 16, 2026, as this is the current estimated resolution date for the match and associated markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents each outcome as a separate 'Yes' market, while Polymarket offers markets on the overall event outcome. This creates a SKU risk.Hero tip: Understand that Kalshi's markets are individually resolving 'Yes/No' questions for each outcome, while Polymarket's markets are resolving *which* outcome occurred. This impacts trading strategy.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolution is based on the overall match result (win, loss, or draw), considering tiebreakers and abandoned matches. Key Quote: 'If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used...the market will resolve to draw.'
  • Kalshi: Each outcome (South Africa win, Australia win, Draw) has its own market that resolves to 'Yes' if that outcome occurs. Key Quote: 'If South Africa wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the cricket match between South Africa and Australia scheduled for October 9 2026 at 3:30 AM ET in Test Match. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve to draw. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market will resolve to draw. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the official result declared by the governing body of the relevant cricket competition for the men's professional Test series match scheduled for October 9, 2026. If South Africa wins, the 'South Africa' market resolves Yes. If Australia wins, the 'Australia' market resolves Yes. If the match ends in a draw or tie, the 'Draw/Tie' market resolves Yes. If the match is cancelled before commencement or abandoned before the toss with no official result, all markets resolve to a fair market price. If the match is delayed beyond five days from the original start time, all markets also resolve to a fair market price. If the match is abandoned after the toss, markets resolve according to the official result recorded by the governing body.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market’s prices are driven purely by supply and demand from traders speculating on the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when there’s significant public information or disagreement about the likely result. Examining both sources provides a more complete picture, and this market can sometimes identify mispricings not yet reflected in sportsbook lines.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform has its own user base, trading dynamics, and fee structures, which influence price discovery. Differences in liquidity – the volume of trading – can also create discrepancies, as smaller markets are more susceptible to price swings. Furthermore, the specific rules and interfaces of each platform can attract different types of traders with varying perspectives on the South Africa vs Australia Test match. These combined factors contribute to the observed price differences, even though both platforms are tracking the same underlying event.