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$154.3b

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$219,029,434

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411,051

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

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63%

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Test Match: Afghanistan vs Bangladesh
kalshi
polymarket

What is the result of Afghanistan vs Bangladesh?

Volume:
$1,950,450

Draw/Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 10:30 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Draw/Tie

View
100%
91%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$630,040
N/A
N/A
$242,558
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
92%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$80,439
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Afghanistan

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$695,474
N/A
N/A
$366,959
Settled
No
polymarket

Afghanistan

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bangladesh

View
0%
90%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$470,758
N/A
N/A
$157,058
Settled
No
polymarket

Bangladesh

View
0%
89%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,434
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of a draw in the Test cricket match between Afghanistan and Bangladesh, scheduled to begin October 9, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of a draw is 85.8%, aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. Resolution will be based on official match statistics reported by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. Keep an eye on the start of the match on October 9, 2026, as the initial play will provide early signals regarding the potential for a draw.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket explicitly accounts for tiebreak scenarios (like Super Overs) while Kalshi does not, potentially leading to different resolutions for tied matches.Hero tip: Focus on markets predicting a clear win for either side to avoid ambiguity around tiebreak scenarios. Consider the probability of a tie when evaluating the value of draw markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the winner if a tiebreak is used. "If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to a draw if the match ends in a draw or tie. "If Afghanistan and Bangladesh draw or tie...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the cricket match between Afghanistan and Bangladesh scheduled for October 9 2026 at 1:30 AM ET in Test Match. DLS/DRS, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the winner determined by that tiebreak will be used for resolution. If the match ends tied and no on-field tiebreak is used or available under the playing conditions (e.g., group-stage ODI with no Super Over), the market will resolve to draw. If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market will remain open until the listed fixture is completed. If the match is permanently canceled or abandoned or otherwise is completed without a winner, the market will resolve to draw. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the official result declared by the governing body of the relevant cricket competition for the men's professional Test series match scheduled for October 9, 2026. If Afghanistan wins, the 'Afghanistan' market resolves Yes. If Bangladesh wins, the 'Bangladesh' market resolves Yes. If the match ends in a draw or tie, the 'Draw/Tie' market resolves Yes. If the match is cancelled before commencement or abandoned before the toss with no official result, all markets resolve to a fair market price. If the match is delayed beyond five days from the original start time, all markets also resolve to a fair market price. If the match is abandoned after the toss, markets resolve according to the official result recorded by the governing body.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found on Polymarket and Kalshi, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the underlying mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, incorporating a margin, while prediction markets are driven by genuine belief and information aggregation. This market’s odds reflect what traders are willing to pay to own a share of a particular outcome, creating a more ‘fair’ price based on collective intelligence. The 24-hour volume for this market is currently $961,501, indicating active trading and evolving predictions. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage or informed betting.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. These platforms have different user bases, trading volumes, and liquidity, leading to varying price discovery. Furthermore, each platform may attract traders with different expertise or access to information regarding the Afghanistan vs Bangladesh Test match. The differing interfaces and fee structures on Polymarket and Kalshi can also influence trading behavior. This market’s current spread reflects these dynamics, with each platform expressing unique expectations about the eventual outcome.