TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 24, 5:14 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively one team might lead at halftime in an upcoming college football game. Outcomes depend entirely on the point differential at the end of the first half, reflecting potential momentum shifts before the second half begins.
All markets resolve based solely on the point difference at the end of the first half of the designated game. If South Carolina holds a lead exceeding the specified margin, the corresponding 'South Carolina wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes; if Tennessee leads by more than the specified margin, the relevant 'Tennessee wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Markets are evaluated exclusively using points scored during the first half. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original schedule, all open markets remain active and resolve according to the actual halftime result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all affected markets settle at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of game timing or circumstances.
Typically, prediction markets and sportsbook odds reflect similar underlying probabilities, but discrepancies can emerge. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, which prediction markets avoid. This can lead to prediction market prices being more efficient, especially as more traders participate and refine the probabilities. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes react more quickly to breaking news or injuries, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi. It's common to see initial differences that narrow as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the Tennessee vs South Carolina spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. Buyers are betting *for* the outcome, while sellers are betting *against* it. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by traders’ differing opinions and new information. A higher price indicates a greater perceived probability of the outcome happening.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the first half spread will be determined by the official result reported by the governing body of college football. The market will settle to 100 if the team favored to cover the spread does so, and to 0 if they do not. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout of 100 minus the price they paid for it, while those holding the losing contract will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Tennessee or South Carolina teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly those impacting playing conditions, could also shift expectations. Unexpected news about team morale or coaching decisions might also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants on Kalshi could indicate a shift in sentiment and move the market price.