TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions by specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Tennessee and Indianapolis. Participants can bet on whether each player will achieve a certain level of performance, with payouts scaling based on the actual number of receptions recorded.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where Yes contracts pay $0.05 per reception recorded by the specified player, up to a maximum payout of $1.00, which corresponds to a cap of 20 receptions. The No contracts pay the remainder, calculated as $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning that if a player records 8 receptions, Yes contracts pay $0.40 and No contracts pay $0.60. If a player records zero receptions, Yes contracts pay $0.00 and No contracts pay $1.00. This structure applies uniformly across all player-specific markets, ensuring consistent reward distribution based on actual game performance.
Typically, prediction market odds and sportsbook odds reflect similar underlying probabilities, but they can diverge based on differing information and participant motivations. Sportsbooks set odds to ensure profitability, incorporating a margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. If a significant difference emerges, arbitrage opportunities may arise, attracting traders to capitalize on the discrepancy. However, it’s common to see a degree of alignment, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official statistics from the Tennessee versus Indianapolis game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for each player will be used to determine which contracts settle in the money. The resolution will reflect the officially recorded statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome based on the actual game results.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or even weather conditions could all impact perceived probabilities. Unexpected developments in practice reports or pre-game interviews with coaches or players could also shift the market. Additionally, large volume trades from informed participants could signal new information or a change in sentiment, potentially leading to significant price movements before the game concludes.