TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks receiving yard performance for specific players in an upcoming NFL matchup. Participants can speculate on how many yards each designated player will gain through receptions. The structure allows for proportional payouts based on actual yardage achieved during the game.
This event comprises four parallel scalar markets resolving based on receiving yards accumulated by four designated players—Jonathan Taylor, Tyler Warren, Tony Pollard, and Wan'Dale Robinson—during the Tennessee vs. Indianapolis NFL game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market functions independently with identical payout mechanics: Yes contracts earn $0.0025 per receiving yard recorded, capped at $1.00 (equivalent to 400 yards), while No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts scale linearly with yardage—for instance, 80 yards yields a Yes payout of $0.20 and a No payout of $0.80, whereas zero yards results in a full $1.00 No payout. All markets resolve to Yes if the respective player records any receiving yards, with payouts strictly limited to the defined yardage-to-dollar ratio and maximum thresholds. Position sizes determine proportional reward distribution.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions, access to information, or simply the dynamics of how each type of market operates. It's worth comparing the two to see where the perceived value lies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yardage levels. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived probability. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume provide insights into the level of confidence traders have in each outcome, and the current prices represent the collective forecast of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the Tennessee versus Indianapolis game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final yardage totals reported by the NFL will determine which contracts settle positively. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the receiving yardage thresholds. It’s important to monitor official NFL sources as the game progresses to understand how the market is tracking against the actual results.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict heavy rain or strong winds, could affect passing game strategies and yardage totals. Pre-game reports on defensive matchups and coverage schemes could also influence trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking news about player availability or changes in team tactics could lead to substantial shifts in the market prices as traders adjust their expectations.