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412,077
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 18, 4:20 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the number of passing touchdowns thrown by Daniel Jones in a specific NFL game between Tennessee and Indianapolis. The outcome depends on whether Jones achieves certain thresholds of scoring passes during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as 'protected,' meaning they incorporate specific participant criteria to determine settlement. If Daniel Jones participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after halftime—including overtime—the contract resolves to the fair price set before the game’s kickoff, unless he meets or exceeds the required number of passing touchdowns, in which case the contract settles based on actual performance. If Jones participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of his first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers the full game including overtime for passing touchdowns.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to predict the same underlying probabilities, so comparing them can be a useful exercise for informed forecasting. Keep in mind that this market represents probabilities assigned by individuals, not a sportsbook.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing touchdowns. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will buy contracts, driving up the price, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Tennessee vs Indianapolis game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and verifiable result. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and any resulting payouts on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game and official data release.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment. Even public perception and betting trends in sportsbooks could indirectly influence activity in this market as traders react to the broader information landscape.