TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing completions achieved by specific quarterbacks in a professional football game between Tennessee and Indianapolis. It focuses on whether predetermined thresholds of completions are met by either Daniel Jones or Cam Ward during the contest. The outcome depends purely on in-game performance metrics.
The event evaluates multiple markets centered on passing completions thresholds for Daniel Jones and Cam Ward in the Tennessee vs. Indianapolis game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market has a distinct completion threshold (e.g., 17+, 22+, 27+ for Jones; 15+, 20+, 25+ for Ward), resolving to 'Yes' if the respective player meets or exceeds their threshold. A key secondary rule applies uniformly: if a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. However, once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual completions recorded during the game. These rules ensure clarity in scenarios where a player is present but does not participate, and they bind resolution to actual in-game performance once participation begins.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often providing a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market allows traders to express their own independent beliefs. This can lead to differences in probabilities, especially as new information emerges. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market dynamically adjusts based on the collective insights of its participants. It's important to note that discrepancies can occur, and neither is always perfectly predictive.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing completions. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts for a specific completion range, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved by both teams during the Tennessee versus Indianapolis game will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official statistics published by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final count as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions unfavorable for passing, could also shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or adjustments to offensive schemes could also impact trading activity. Finally, late-breaking news about player availability or performance expectations could lead to substantial price fluctuations as traders react to the latest information.