TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:24 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific players and teams will exceed designated fantasy point thresholds in an upcoming football game. Each market evaluates individual performance based on detailed scoring metrics, including offensive contributions and defensive impacts. Outcomes are determined by comparing actual game statistics to predetermined benchmarks.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points accumulated by specified players or team defense/special teams units during the full game (including overtime) between Tennessee and Indianapolis, scheduled for October 18, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams performances according to fixed rates (e.g., +0.04 per passing yard, +6 for a rushing touchdown). Players who do not participate or lack a published fantasy-point value are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at market expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. Markets resolve to "Yes" if the designated player or unit exceeds their specified fantasy-point threshold; otherwise, they resolve to "No".
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different set of information and incentives than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. While both aim to predict the outcome of the Tennessee vs Indianapolis game, prediction markets can sometimes offer more accurate forecasts, particularly when there’s significant public interest and trading activity. It’s common to see initial discrepancies that narrow as the event approaches, as information becomes more widely available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different fantasy point totals for the Tennessee vs Indianapolis game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fantasy point totals for the Tennessee vs Indianapolis game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on officially recorded fantasy point data from a major fantasy sports provider, ensuring an objective and transparent determination of the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final results of the game and their positions in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Tennessee or Indianapolis teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions affecting passing or rushing attacks, could also move the market. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as significant shifts in public sentiment, could all contribute to changes in the odds for the Tennessee vs Indianapolis game. Monitoring these factors can help traders make informed decisions.