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$154.7b
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$279,496,801
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2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 4:12 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the point differential between Tennessee and Indianapolis exclusively during the final quarter of their scheduled game. Outcomes depend on which team achieves specific margin thresholds in points scored versus conceded within that timeframe.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored or conceded by either Tennessee or Indianapolis during the 4th quarter of the game scheduled for October 18, 2026, with overtime periods excluded from consideration. Each market specifies a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team for a 'Yes' resolution. Thresholds range from narrow margins like over 1.5 points to larger gaps such as over 10.5 points, covering both directions of potential victory. The outcome hinges entirely on in-game performance within the final quarter, independent of earlier periods or overall game results.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows anyone to trade, so the price can shift based on a broader range of information and opinions. It’s common to see prediction markets react quickly to news and developments, potentially leading to odds that diverge from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Keep an eye on how this market evolves as game day approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different 4th quarter spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual spread will fall within that range. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price of those contracts increases, while the price of contracts predicting other outcomes decreases. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the game draws nearer.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter spread of the Tennessee versus Indianapolis game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics reported by a trusted sports data provider. The final point difference between the two teams at the end of the 4th quarter will determine which contracts pay out, and at what value, based on the spread represented by each contract.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Tennessee or Indianapolis would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also move the market. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could also influence traders' expectations. Finally, as the game progresses, real-time scoring and momentum shifts will undoubtedly drive significant activity in this market.