TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Tennessee or Indianapolis specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team during that quarter alone.
These markets resolve based solely on the point differential achieved by either Tennessee or Indianapolis during the third quarter of their game scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold that the winning team must surpass for the contract to resolve as 'Yes'. Only points scored during the third quarter count toward these outcomes, meaning performance in any other quarter is irrelevant. If the game is postponed, canceled, or otherwise not played as scheduled, all markets will resolve as 'No'. The contracts are independent of the overall game result, focusing exclusively on the third quarter's scoring dynamics.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the opinions of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 3rd quarter spread of the Tennessee versus Indianapolis game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The market’s outcome is determined by the actual game result, not by any subjective judgment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key offensive contributors, could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the scoring potential and therefore the spread. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis regarding coaching strategies or team matchups could lead to traders adjusting their positions, causing the price to fluctuate.