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Closed: Nov 1, 3:41 PM EST
Kalshi
In the upcoming Pro Football game between Tennessee and Cincinnati, a safety occurs when a team is penalized two points after a player is downed in their own end zone. This can happen due to various infractions such as offensive pass interference or intentional grounding.
If Tennessee or Cincinnati record a safety in the Tennessee vs Cincinnati Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of a safety occurring. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a 0% to 100% chance of the event happening. As more people buy contracts, the price goes up, indicating increasing belief in the outcome. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, creating a real-time probability estimate for the game.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether a safety is officially recorded by game officials during the Tennessee vs Cincinnati game. The official game results will be used to determine whether a safety occurred, and that determination will finalize the outcome of this market. Traders will then be paid out or have their contracts adjusted based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key defensive players on either team could significantly shift expectations, as a weakened defense might be more prone to giving up a safety. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the game and increase the likelihood of a safety. Furthermore, any in-game events during the Tennessee vs Cincinnati game itself, like early turnovers or penalties, could cause rapid price movements as traders react to the unfolding situation.