TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event ties to a specific football game where contracts pay out based on how many rushing yards individual players accumulate. The payout structure rewards higher performance with increasing returns, creating a tiered system that reflects player effectiveness on the field.
Contracts in this event resolve based on the official rushing yards achieved by designated players in the specified football game. Each Yes contract pays a predetermined amount tied to 10-yard increments of rushing yards, following a cubic scaling formula that increases payouts progressively for higher yardage. The payout schedule ranges from $0.0000 for 0–9 yards up to $1.0000 for 200 or more yards. No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout. Negative rushing yards result in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. All payouts are capped at $1.00 per contract, and the market resolves to Yes upon confirmation of official statistics. The structure ensures that higher yardage yields disproportionately larger returns, reflecting performance risk and reward dynamics.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a smaller team of experts, and can be influenced by factors like public betting patterns and risk management. This market, like others, may show divergence from sportsbook lines due to differing information or interpretations of the game. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms and can therefore vary.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage outcomes. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if more people believe a certain yardage range is likely, the price of contracts for that range will increase. Conversely, if traders think an outcome is less probable, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd and provides a real-time assessment of the potential rushing yardage in this game.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final rushing yard totals for both Tennessee and Cincinnati will be used to determine the winning outcome. The official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will serve as the basis for verifying the result. Traders will be able to see the resolution details on Kalshi once the data is confirmed.
Several factors could influence this market before it resolves. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a significant catalyst, as would any changes to the projected weather conditions for the game. Unexpected news regarding coaching strategies or offensive line changes could also shift the market. Furthermore, any late-breaking information about player availability or team dynamics could impact trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in this market.