TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:47 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of a specific player in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether he achieves various levels of rushing yard milestones. The outcome depends entirely on the player's actual play during the match.
All markets in this event evaluate whether Tony Pollard reaches specified rushing yard thresholds in the Tennessee vs Cincinnati professional football game scheduled for November 1, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different yardage benchmark, ranging from 30+ to 140+ yards. If Pollard records the exact or more yards than the threshold specified in a market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. A key secondary rule applies uniformly across all markets: if Pollard is listed as active for the game but does not take a single snap—whether due to coaching decisions or other factors—the market settles at its fair market price as determined before the game begins. However, once Pollard takes at least one snap, even if that play is later nullified by a penalty, the market outcome is determined solely by the total rushing yards he records during the game. These rules ensure that markets are resolved fairly based on actual in-game performance, while also accounting for pre-game uncertainties regarding player participation.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it might suggest that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular result. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be correct.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts for a specific yardage range, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs about the game's potential rushing yardage. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for the Tennessee vs Cincinnati game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The market will settle to 100 for the contract closest to the actual combined rushing yards achieved in the game, with other contracts settling to 0. Traders holding the winning contract will receive a payout based on its price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. News regarding key player injuries to running backs or offensive linemen on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if heavy rain or snow is predicted, could also impact expectations for rushing yardage. Late-breaking reports about team strategies or coaching decisions related to running the ball could also shift the market. Finally, any significant shifts in public perception, perhaps driven by expert analysis, could also lead to changes in trading activity and price fluctuations.