TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 5:09 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming college football game between Tennessee and Cincinnati. Participants bet on whether the actual reception counts will meet certain thresholds, with payouts varying based on the exact number of receptions recorded during the game.
Each market functions as a scalar prediction, where Yes contracts pay out according to a predefined schedule based on the official number of receptions a designated player achieves in the specified game. The payout structure is non-linear, increasing progressively with each additional reception up to a maximum cap of $1.00 per contract. If a player records 14 or more receptions, the Yes contract pays the full $1.00. Conversely, No contracts pay the difference between $1.00 and the corresponding Yes payout, ensuring that the total payout for both Yes and No contracts combined equals $1.00. The payout formula for Yes contracts is calculated as floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official receptions recorded by the player. These rules apply independently to each player-specific market, with each market resolving to Yes if the actual reception count triggers the corresponding payout condition.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on their own analysis, while this market aggregates the insights of numerous traders. As new information emerges, such as injury reports or weather forecasts, the prediction market can adjust more rapidly. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes offer value, especially if they differ significantly from the current price on Kalshi. It’s always wise to compare both to inform your decisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total receptions. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of its corresponding contract will rise. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that continuously updates as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for the Tennessee vs Cincinnati game will be sourced from official game statistics. Once these statistics are finalized and widely available, Kalshi will determine the winning contracts based on the actual number of receptions achieved. The resolution process ensures transparency and accuracy in determining the market's outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key receivers on either team would be a major catalyst, as would any changes to the projected weather conditions for the game. Unexpected starting quarterback changes or shifts in offensive play-calling strategies could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, any news regarding player matchups or defensive schemes could prompt traders to reassess their positions. Monitoring these signals closely will be crucial for understanding potential market movements before Nov 2, 2026.