TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 2:38 PM EST
Kalshi
These contracts track whether specific quarterbacks will achieve varying thresholds of passing touchdowns in an upcoming football game between Tennessee and Cincinnati. The outcomes depend on the actual performance of the named players during the full match, including any overtime periods.
Each contract is designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half, including overtime, the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the required passing touchdown threshold, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full game passing touchdowns including overtime. Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by professional oddsmakers, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. These differences can arise from varying levels of expertise, access to information, or simply differing opinions on the likely outcome of the game. Analyzing both can provide a more comprehensive view.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the number of passing touchdowns. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices suggesting a greater likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, constantly refining the market's assessment of the game's potential. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new data and reflect evolving expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Tennessee vs Cincinnati game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and accurate determination of the result. The market will then settle, and traders will receive payouts based on their positions and the actual outcome. It’s important to monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the resolution process.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to game day. Any news regarding key player injuries, particularly the quarterbacks or top receivers for either team, would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected passing volume and therefore the market prices. Furthermore, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected public analysis or prominent sports commentators’ predictions might also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.