TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game between Tennessee and Cincinnati. The outcome depends on whether predefined thresholds of passing attempts are met by the designated players during the contest.
The event resolves based on whether specified quarterbacks, Joe Burrow or Cam Ward, meet or exceed defined passing attempt thresholds in the Tennessee vs Cincinnati Pro Football game scheduled for November 1, 2026. Each market corresponds to a particular player and a minimum number of passing attempts required for a 'Yes' outcome. If a quarterback is active for the game but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual number of passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation of outcomes for each specified player and threshold.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. As more information emerges – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the odds on Kalshi may move more quickly than those at sportsbooks, potentially offering an advantage to informed traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before an event, as the market incorporates diverse perspectives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total passing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. Buyers are betting that the outcome will occur, while sellers are betting against it. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; increased buying pressure raises the price, indicating higher perceived probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing attempt total for the Tennessee vs Cincinnati game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as recorded by the governing body of college football. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances on Kalshi shortly after the game concludes and the official statistics are released. The outcome is determined by the actual number of passing attempts made during the game.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding the starting quarterbacks for either team, such as injuries or changes in playing status, would likely cause price fluctuations. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could impact passing strategies and, therefore, the expected number of attempts. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in game strategy could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about key offensive players or changes in team dynamics could lead to adjustments in trader sentiment and price movements on Kalshi.