TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 4:45 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how decisively either team wins the second half of an upcoming football game, focusing specifically on the point differential at the end of that half. Each market corresponds to a different threshold of points by which the winning team must exceed the losing team.
The event consists of multiple sub-markets, each defined by a specific point differential threshold that must be met or exceeded by either team in the second half (including overtime) of the designated football game. For any given market, if the specified team wins the second half by more points than the threshold stated in that market's title, the market resolves to 'Yes.' If not, it resolves to 'No.' All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second half and overtime of that half, disregarding any points from the first half. The thresholds vary symmetrically for both teams, ranging from narrow margins to larger point differentials, allowing participants to speculate on the exact competitiveness of the second half.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. Often, you'll find that prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds are readily accessible and provide a common benchmark for comparison, and discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Tennessee vs Cincinnati spread. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the likely result. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second half of the Tennessee vs Cincinnati game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Contracts predicting a spread closer to the actual result will be worth more at resolution. The platform will verify the outcome against official game statistics to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Tennessee or Cincinnati teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect the passing or running game, could also move the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could influence trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations. Public perception and analysis from sports commentators can also play a role in shaping expectations.