TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how effectively each team disrupts the opposing offense's passing game by recording sacks during a specific football match. The outcomes depend entirely on the defensive performance of both teams in terms of pressuring the quarterback.
All markets resolve based on the total number of sacks recorded by either Tennessee or Baltimore during their Pro Football game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Sacks counted must occur during standard play; those made during two-point conversion attempts are excluded. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to commence within this 48-hour window, all markets settle at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from 2 to 6 sacks) that, if met or exceeded by a team, triggers a 'Yes' resolution for that particular market.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective forecast of informed traders. Often, prediction markets are more accurate than traditional point spreads, especially when considering the influence of public opinion on sportsbook lines. However, it’s important to note that sportsbooks may adjust their odds more rapidly in response to breaking news than this market does, due to differing incentives and trading volumes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total number of team sacks. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of its probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective prediction. The market depth shows the available liquidity at different price points, indicating how easily orders can be filled. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate forecasts, as profitable predictions result in financial gains.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of team sacks recorded during the game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, as reported by the NFL. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi once the data has been verified, and any winning contracts will be automatically settled according to the market rules.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Injury reports for key offensive linemen or defensive players are significant catalysts, as they directly impact a team’s ability to protect the quarterback or pressure the opposing team. Weather conditions, particularly strong winds or rain, can also affect passing offenses and potentially lead to more sacks. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding coaching strategies or changes in personnel could shift trader sentiment and cause fluctuations in the market.