TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions achieved by specific players during an upcoming football game. Contracts will pay out based on the exact count of receptions each player makes, with increasing returns for higher reception totals. The structure incentivizes precise predictions about player performance in a key matchup.
Contracts in this event pay out based on the exact number of official receptions recorded by designated players during the specified football game. Each Yes contract’s payout scales non-linearly with the number of receptions, calculated using the formula: Payout = floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where 's' represents the official receptions. Payouts range from $0.0000 for 0 receptions up to $1.0000 for 14 or more receptions. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the corresponding Yes payout, ensuring total returns for both positions sum to $1.00. The market resolves to Yes when the game occurs according to the stated schedule. All payouts are capped at $1.00 per contract, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league or ownership of associated trademarks.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial line setting. Sportsbooks may also adjust their odds more slowly to changes in public perception than this market. While sportsbooks focus on setting lines to balance action and ensure profit, this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly as new information emerges or key players are impacted by injury.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of expectations for the number of receptions in the Tennessee vs Baltimore game.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final reception totals for the Tennessee vs Baltimore game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The official NFL statistics will serve as the basis for determining the winning contracts. The resolution process ensures an objective and transparent determination of the outcome, based on publicly available data. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies for future events.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Tennessee or Baltimore teams would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also impact the market. Additionally, pre-game reports on defensive strategies and potential matchups could shift expectations. Finally, any significant shifts in public sentiment, reflected in polls or analyst predictions, could also drive movement in this market.