TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:39 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the receiving performance of specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Tennessee and Baltimore. Contracts pay out based on the total receiving yards each player accumulates during the match, with payments scaling linearly relative to yardage. The structure allows participants to speculate on individual player productivity in the contest.
Each market operates as a scalar betting mechanism where Yes contracts pay $0.0025 per receiving yard recorded by the designated player (Mark Andrews, Derrick Henry, or Wan'Dale Robinson) in the specified game, capped at $1.00 for up to 400 yards. No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to each contract holder's position size, meaning that if a player records 80 receiving yards, Yes contracts pay $0.20 and No contracts pay $0.80; at 200 yards, both sides pay $0.50. Zero yards result in a full $1.00 payout to No contracts and $0.00 to Yes contracts. All markets resolve based solely on official NFL statistics for the game originally scheduled for October 4, 2026, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the NFL.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different receiving yard totals. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. While sportsbooks may initially have an edge, the collective intelligence of traders in this market often leads to highly accurate predictions as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard ranges for players in the Tennessee versus Baltimore game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on news, analysis, and their own insights, which causes prices to fluctuate. The goal is to buy contracts at a price lower than your belief about the true probability and sell them at a higher price before the market closes.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the Tennessee versus Baltimore game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the actual receiving yards achieved by the players involved in the receiving yards ladder. The final prices on Kalshi will reflect the probabilities as understood by the market just before the event's conclusion, and winning contracts will be paid out accordingly. The official NFL statistics will be the determining factor for settlement.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Tennessee or Baltimore teams would likely cause substantial price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect passing game strategies and, therefore, receiving yardage totals. Unexpected news about quarterback performance or coaching decisions could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, late-breaking reports on player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the prices within this market.