TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team will be the first to reach 21 points in an upcoming football game between Tennessee and Baltimore. It captures the dynamic nature of the contest by focusing on the pace at which each team scores, rather than the final outcome. The resolution depends purely on the first scoring milestone reached during the game.
The event determines whether Baltimore, Tennessee, or neither team is the first to score 21 points in the Pro Football game originally scheduled for October 4, 2026. If either team reaches 21 points first during the full game, including any overtime periods, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should neither team achieve this scoring milestone, the 'Neither team' market resolves to Yes. Postponements are accounted for: if the game starts within 48 hours of its original scheduled time, the market remains open and resolves based on the final result. If the game does not commence within this 48-hour window, the market resolves to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under varying scheduling circumstances.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which can be influenced by factors like public bias or sharp action. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action, while this market represents participants’ genuine beliefs about the probability of each team reaching 21 points first. Over time, the odds on Kalshi may converge with sportsbook odds as more information becomes available and the event draws nearer, but initial discrepancies are common. It’s useful to compare both to gain a broader understanding of expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each team reaching 21 points first. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of that outcome’s likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing opinions. Higher prices indicate a greater perceived probability, while lower prices suggest a lower probability. The market dynamically adjusts to incorporate all available information from participants.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which team—Tennessee or Baltimore—reached 21 points first during the game. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and scoring records. Any disputes regarding the official scoring will be resolved using generally accepted sports reporting standards. The final result will be publicly available and used to settle all outstanding contracts on Kalshi.
Several factors could significantly impact the Tennessee vs Baltimore points race. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes in team strategy would likely cause movement in this market. Unexpected performance in prior games, or even weather forecasts for the game day, could also influence traders’ assessments. Significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in media coverage or social media, could also play a role. As the game approaches, any updates regarding team lineups or coaching decisions will be closely watched and could lead to price fluctuations on Kalshi.