TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether specific players will achieve a longest reception exceeding defined yardage thresholds in an upcoming football game between Tennessee and Baltimore. Each player's performance is evaluated independently based on the distance of their farthest completed pass reception during the match.
All markets resolve based on whether the specified player records a longest reception exceeding the stated yardage threshold in the Tennessee vs Baltimore Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. If a player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual longest reception recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for each named player, ensuring consistent evaluation of performance metrics.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines which are set by oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or focus on public perception, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both sets of odds will adjust. However, prediction markets often become more accurate closer to the event, potentially offering a more refined probability assessment than traditional sportsbooks. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the trading period.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about which player will have the longest reception. As more people buy a contract for a specific player, the price of that contract increases, reflecting a higher probability. Conversely, selling a contract drives the price down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract represents the probability of that player having the longest reception, with prices ranging from 0 to 100, where 100 represents a 100% probability. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to new information and refine their predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, following the conclusion of the game between Tennessee and Baltimore. The outcome will be determined by the official statistics reported by the NFL, specifically the longest reception recorded for each player during the game. The player with the longest reception will be declared the winner of this market, and the outcome will be confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Any ties will be handled according to Kalshi’s market rules.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key receivers on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather conditions, such as strong winds or heavy rain, could impact passing strategies and affect which players are targeted. Unexpected starting lineup changes or adjustments to offensive schemes could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news or analysis from reputable sports analysts could sway trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in this market.