TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:21 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets link financial outcomes to the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game, with payouts scaling directly according to each player's fantasy points scored. The structure creates a direct incentive for participants to monitor and predict individual player production in the contest. Rewards are capped, ensuring predictable risk exposure for all positions.
Each market determines payouts based on the PPR fantasy points scored by a designated player during the Tennessee vs Baltimore game on Oct 4, 2026, using Sleeper's official weekly scoring data. Yes contracts pay $0.01 per fantasy point, rounded to the nearest cent with half-cents rounded up, and capped between $0.00 and $1.00. No contracts pay the remainder of $1.00 minus the Yes payout. If a player receives no fantasy-point total from Sleeper for that week, they are considered to have scored zero points, resulting in a $0.00 Yes payout and a $1.00 No payout. All payouts scale proportionally with contract positions, creating a direct financial correlation between player performance and market resolution.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows anyone to trade on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets incorporate information faster than sportsbooks, particularly regarding factors not easily quantifiable, like player morale or coaching changes. However, both aim to accurately predict the outcome of the Tennessee vs Baltimore game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Tennessee vs Baltimore game. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final fantasy point totals for players in the Tennessee vs Baltimore game, as calculated by a major fantasy sports provider. The specific methodology for determining the fantasy points will be publicly available, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the resolution date approaches, as any changes to the game schedule or scoring rules could impact the outcome of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Tennessee or Baltimore teams would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in player matchups, coaching strategies, or even weather forecasts could also influence trader behavior. Unexpected news about player performance or off-field issues could also move the market. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could indicate a change in sentiment and trigger further price adjustments as we approach the Oct 4, 2026 resolution of this market.