TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 7:39 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many points Tennessee and Arkansas will score together in the final quarter of their upcoming college football game. Each market has a different threshold, allowing participants to speculate on whether the combined scoring will exceed various point totals.
All markets resolve based solely on the total points scored by both teams during the 4th quarter of the Tennessee vs Arkansas college football game scheduled for October 10, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. For each market, if the combined 4th-quarter points exceed the specified threshold (e.g., 2.5, 5.5, up to 27.5 points), the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. If the game does not begin within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants under these contingency conditions.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds to attract balanced betting and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. It’s common to see this market’s implied probabilities shift more rapidly than sportsbook odds in response to new information, such as injury reports or weather forecasts. However, discrepancies can occur, presenting potential opportunities for arbitrage if you believe the market is mispricing the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the total points scored in the 4th quarter. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the 4th quarter is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by the governing sports organization. The total points scored in the 4th quarter will be the determining factor, and contracts will pay out $1 per share for those predicting the correct range. Any disputes regarding the official score will be addressed according to Kalshi’s standard procedures.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Tennessee or Arkansas would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to affect scoring, could also move the market. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale might also influence trader behavior. Finally, as the game progresses, real-time scoring updates and shifts in momentum will undoubtedly drive price changes in this market until it resolves.