TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:12 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses exclusively on the second half performance of the TEN Titans versus BAL Ravens game, determining winners based on varying point differentials. Each market specifies a different threshold for how many points the winning team must score more than the opponent to resolve as 'Yes'.
The event consists of multiple markets, each defined by a specific point differential threshold that the BAL Ravens or TEN Titans must exceed in the second half (including overtime) of the game scheduled for October 4, 2026. If the specified team wins by more points than the threshold stated in a given market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second half and overtime of play. The thresholds range from narrow margins (e.g., over 2.5 points) to substantial leads (e.g., over 20.5 points), offering varied outcomes depending on the game's second-half dynamics. Each market operates independently, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. The governing body's official rules apply to the game itself, but Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the league.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an event occurring, and can be influenced by public perception and breaking news.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions on the second half spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular spread is likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what the collective market believes is the most probable outcome, and this price fluctuates based on new information and trading activity.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread in the second half of the TEN Titans versus BAL Ravens game will be used to determine which contracts payout. The market will settle based on the official result reported by the NFL, and any adjustments made thereafter. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Titans or Ravens would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also influence the spread. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi themselves can create momentum and drive price fluctuations as traders react to perceived information or shifts in market confidence.