TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 1:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter in an upcoming professional football game. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will lead by a specific margin at the end of the first quarter. The outcomes are based solely on performance within that initial segment of the game.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Baltimore Ravens and the Tennessee Titans exclusively during the first quarter of their scheduled game on October 4, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning margin—ranging from over 2.5 points to over 10.5 points—for either team. If the specified team achieves a victory by exceeding the designated point spread within the first quarter, the corresponding market resolves to 'Yes.' Otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' All assessments consider only points scored during the first quarter, with no regard to the final game outcome or points accumulated in subsequent quarters. The markets are independent, allowing for multiple resolutions depending on the exact margin of victory.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their genuine beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Often, prediction markets are considered more accurate than traditional polls, as participants have 'skin in the game' and are incentivized to be correct. However, sportsbook odds remain a valuable point of comparison for understanding broader market expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the first quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information, their own analysis, and their expectations of how others will react. This dynamic process leads to a constantly updating price that represents the collective forecast for the game's opening quarter. The current price indicates the market's assessment of the likelihood of the spread.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official first quarter spread of the TEN Titans vs BAL Ravens game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official game statistics reported by the NFL. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread matches the contract price, and proportionally less if the actual spread differs. The resolution process ensures an objective and transparent determination of the market’s outcome based on established sports data.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the TEN Titans or BAL Ravens would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact predictions. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions might also shift the market. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create price fluctuations as traders react to new information or attempt to influence the market’s direction.