TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 11:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event determines whether specific tight ends achieve top-tier performance in fantasy football during a designated week, based on accumulated player points. It reflects the competitive nature of fantasy sports where participants track real-player statistics to score points in their virtual leagues.
Each market resolves to Yes if the named player finishes within the top five in total full-PPR fantasy points among all eligible tight ends for Week 6 of the 2026 NFL regular season, using Sleeper’s scoring system. Players who do not participate that week are considered to have scored zero points. Ties at the qualifying position result in proportional settlement (e.g., if two players tie for the fifth spot, each receives half the payout). The scoring system awards points for various in-game achievements such as receptions, yards gained, touchdowns, and special teams contributions, with specific values assigned to each action. All tight ends are ranked regardless of market listing, and the official rankings and point calculations are determined by Sleeper at the time of market expiration.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by public perception or bookmaker biases. While sportsbooks set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market aggregates the opinions of many individual traders. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. It's common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks to incorporate breaking news, like injury reports, which could impact the perceived value of a player in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether a specific tight end will finish in the Top 5. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders place orders, creating a real-time assessment of probabilities based on collective intelligence. Essentially, the price you see represents the current consensus view of all participants in the market.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official fantasy point totals for Week 6 are verified against credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on standard fantasy football scoring rules as defined by major fantasy platforms. The tight ends who accumulate the highest fantasy point totals will be ranked, and the market will settle based on whether each listed player finishes within the Top 5. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports are a major catalyst; news of a key tight end being ruled out or playing at less than full health would likely shift probabilities. Unexpected changes in team offensive schemes or quarterback performance could also influence expectations. Additionally, late-breaking news regarding matchups – for example, a favorable defensive assignment for a particular tight end – could drive trading activity. Finally, general shifts in public perception or expert rankings could also contribute to movement in this market.