TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 9:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the point differential in the first quarter of a specific football game between two teams. Each market corresponds to a different threshold for how many points one team must win by in that quarter to determine the outcome.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential during the first quarter of the designated game. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the specified team wins the quarter by more points than the stated threshold. Only points scored within the first quarter count, regardless of the final game result. Each market has a unique point differential requirement, ranging from narrow margins to larger gaps, allowing participants to bet on various levels of dominance in the opening quarter. The markets cover both possible outcomes—wins by either the Dallas Cowboys or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—each with incremental point spreads.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Analyzing these differences can reveal insights into public perception and potential value opportunities, but remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the first quarter of the Buccaneers-Cowboys game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The official NFL results will serve as the basis for verifying the outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The market will close prior to the end of the first quarter to allow for proper settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Buccaneers or the Cowboys would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Unexpected news related to team strategy or coaching decisions might also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed bettors could signal shifts in sentiment and drive price changes in this market, as well as general public perception of each team’s chances.