TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 11:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks specific player performance metrics in an upcoming baseball game between Tampa Bay and Milwaukee. It focuses on whether selected players achieve certain thresholds of total bases during the match. Outcomes are determined solely by the players' statistical contributions, not the overall game result.
The event resolves based on whether specified players record a minimum number of total bases in the Tampa Bay vs Milwaukee game scheduled for Oct 23, 2026. Each market has a primary rule requiring a player to achieve 2+, 3+, 4+, or 5+ total bases for resolution to 'Yes'. All markets share consistent secondary rules: if a player is scratched, not in the starting lineup, or fails to record a plate appearance, the market resolves at fair market price. If a player enters as a substitute but does not start, pinch-hit at-bats are excluded, and the market also resolves at fair market price. Only players who start and record at least one plate appearance contribute to the market outcome, which is settled purely based on their total bases accumulated during the game.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of each system. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different total base outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe a higher total base count is likely, they will bid up the price of contracts representing those outcomes, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The total number of bases achieved by both the Tampa Bay and Milwaukee teams during the game will determine the final result. This includes all singles, doubles, triples, and home runs hit by both teams combined. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or lineup changes for either the Tampa Bay or Milwaukee teams would likely cause movement. Weather conditions, particularly those that could affect hitting, could also play a role. Additionally, performance in recent games, pitching matchups, and even pre-game analysis from baseball experts can all impact trader sentiment and drive price fluctuations. Unexpected events during the game itself, such as a particularly strong offensive showing from one team, could also lead to significant shifts.