TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 10:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Tampa Bay and Miami, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for a Tampa Bay versus Miami professional USL Championship soccer match scheduled for October 30, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are considered: Tampa Bay winning by more than 2.5 goals, Tampa Bay winning by more than 1.5 goals, Miami winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Miami winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based exclusively on the final score after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. The event operates independently of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, particularly when there is significant public information available. However, sportsbooks often offer more variety in betting options, and may have promotional offers that prediction markets don't match. It's often useful to compare both to gain a broader perspective.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand – if more people believe the spread will be a certain value, the price of that contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic process aims to converge towards a fair and efficient price.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Tampa Bay vs Miami game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of the sport. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the actual spread. The platform ensures a transparent and reliable resolution process, using publicly available data to determine the winning contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Tampa Bay or Miami teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they are expected to impact the game, could also shift the spread. Public sentiment, as reflected in expert analysis and media coverage, can also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed traders could indicate new information or a shift in expectations, leading to price adjustments in this market.