TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 11:54 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets allow participants to speculate on the number of receptions achieved by specific players in an upcoming football game between Tampa Bay and Dallas. Payouts increase with the number of receptions, offering varying returns based on performance. Each market is structured to resolve based on the official game statistics.
Each market resolves based on the official number of receptions achieved by the specified player in the Tampa Bay vs Dallas Pro Football game originally scheduled for Oct 8, 2026. For each player market, Yes contracts pay according to a predefined schedule that increases with the number of receptions, capped at $1.00 for 14 or more receptions. The payout formula for Yes contracts is floor(10000 x (min(s, 14) / 14)^3) / 10000, where s represents the official receptions. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout, ensuring that the total payout for both Yes and No contracts equals $1.00. Each market resolves to Yes if the specified conditions are met based on the official game statistics. The structure is consistent across all player markets, with identical payout schedules and formulas applied to each participant's reception count.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines, which are set by experts. Sportsbooks may incorporate biases or seek to capitalize on public perception, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – both prediction market prices and sportsbook odds will adjust. However, prediction markets often become more accurate closer to the event, potentially offering a more refined probability assessment than traditional betting outlets. It's common to see convergence as the event nears.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total receptions in the Buccaneers-Cowboys game. The price of each contract reflects the market's current expectation of that outcome's probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and offers, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of the potential reception totals, driven by the collective intelligence of the participants. The current price indicates what traders believe is a fair value for each possible outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final reception totals for both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys will be sourced from official game statistics. The market will settle based on the combined total receptions achieved by players on both teams during the game. The resolution will be based on the official game data, ensuring a transparent and accurate determination of the outcome. This provides a clear and objective basis for settling the market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Buccaneers or the Cowboys would likely have a significant impact. Changes in the weather forecast, particularly conditions that might favor a passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Unexpected news regarding team strategies or quarterback performance could also move the market. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could influence trading activity and alter the price of this market.