TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 11:30 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Tampa Bay and Dallas. Participants bet on whether each player will achieve a certain level of receiving yards, with payouts scaling based on the exact yardage achieved.
Each market operates as a scalar betting contract focused on the receiving yards accumulated by a designated player during the Tampa Bay vs Dallas Pro Football game scheduled for October 8, 2026. For every 'Yes' contract, the payout is calculated at a rate of $0.0025 per receiving yard recorded by the specified player, with the total payout capped at $1.00. This means that if a player records 400 receiving yards, the maximum payout per 'Yes' contract would be $1.00. The 'No' contract payout is determined by subtracting the 'Yes' payout from $1.00, ensuring that the combined payouts for both positions always equal $1.00. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning larger positions receive correspondingly larger payouts based on the yardage outcome. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, the 'Yes' payout would be $0.20 and the 'No' payout would be $0.80. The markets resolve to 'Yes' if the specified player records any receiving yards up to the cap; otherwise, they resolve to 'No'. All markets are independent, and each player's performance is evaluated separately, with no cross-market dependencies.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly in the lead-up to an event. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. However, discrepancies can occur due to differing levels of information and the specific participants in each venue. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard outcomes for the players involved. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information surfaces, these prices will fluctuate, providing a dynamic assessment of potential receiving yardage totals. The platform facilitates this price discovery process, allowing traders to express their views and profit from accurate predictions.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics for the Tampa Bay vs Dallas game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, and the contract corresponding to the receiving yardage bracket achieved by the relevant players will pay out. Traders will be able to view the final results and payouts on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game and official data verification.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers on both the Tampa Bay and Dallas teams would be a major catalyst, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect passing game strategies. News regarding quarterback performance or defensive matchups could also drive price movements. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in game plans, as well as any late-breaking news about player availability, are all potential signals that could lead to adjustments in the probabilities reflected in this market.