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OPEN INTEREST:
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419,492
Markets across
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 8, 11:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi predicts whether George Pickens will exceed specific receiving yard thresholds during the Tampa Bay versus Dallas professional football game, with payouts escalating based on total yards gained. Currently, the probability of the “George Pickens Receiving Yards Escalator” outcome is 9.6%, while the “Emeka Egbuka Receiving Yards Escalator” outcome is at 1.1%. Resolution will be determined by the official receiving yards recorded by Emeka Egbuka in the game originally scheduled for October 8, 2026, as reported by the official game statistics source. Keep an eye on team injury reports and player availability leading up to October 9, 2026, as that date represents the end of the betting period and the point at which the market will resolve.
Each market evaluates player receiving yards in the Tampa Bay vs Dallas game scheduled for October 8, 2026. Yes contracts pay according to a tiered schedule where every 10-yard increment increases payout values from $0.0000 up to $1.0000 for 200+ yards. The payout formula uses a cubic function scaled to a maximum of $1.00, calculated as floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000 where y equals min(200, max(0, 10 x floor(s / 10))) and s represents official receiving yards. No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout, with negative yardage resulting in $0.00 for Yes. All markets resolve to Yes upon completion, regardless of payout amounts, and Kalshi disclaims official affiliation with the governing league.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what’s readily available in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It's common to see differences emerge, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to predict the same outcome – the total receiving yards in the Tampa Bay vs Dallas game – and often converge closer to the event’s conclusion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals. The price of a contract reflects the probability of the total receiving yards falling at or above that level. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process creates a market price that represents the collective belief of all participants regarding the likely outcome of the Tampa Bay vs Dallas game.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yards total for both teams will be sourced from official game statistics. This will determine which contracts pay out and at what value, based on the final total. Traders who correctly predicted the receiving yards total will receive a payout, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake. The market’s resolution is based on the official game statistics, not on any subjective interpretation.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key wide receivers or tight ends on either the Tampa Bay or Dallas teams would likely cause a shift in the market price. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that favor passing or running, could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or coaching decisions could also move the market. Even general public perception and analysis from sports commentators can influence trading activity and, consequently, the price of contracts in this market.