TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 11:23 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the interplay between the first half and full game outcomes of a specific football match. Each market requires a specific combination of results in both halves to be correct for resolution. The events cover various possible scenarios, including wins by either team or a tie in either segment.
All markets resolve based on the combined results of the first half and the full game (including overtime) of the Tampa Bay vs Dallas Pro Football game scheduled for October 8, 2026. For a market to resolve as Yes, both the specified first half result and the specified full game result must occur exactly as described. If either the first half or full game result does not match the market's conditions, the market resolves to No. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original schedule, the markets remain open and resolve based on the official results. If the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Each market specifies a unique combination of first half and full game outcomes, such as Dallas winning both halves, Tampa Bay winning the first half and the game, or both halves ending in a tie.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when there's considerable uncertainty. These differences can arise from varying levels of information, biases, or simply different interpretations of the same data. Examining both can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The platform uses a market maker system to ensure there's always a bid and ask price available, facilitating continuous trading. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to rapidly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities accordingly.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Tampa Bay vs Dallas game, specifically the 1st Half / Fulltime Result as determined by official sports sources. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders who correctly predicted the result will receive a payout based on the final market prices at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Tampa Bay or Dallas teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they could affect the game’s conditions, could also shift probabilities. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team dynamics might also move the market. Finally, large trading volume from informed traders could signal shifts in sentiment and lead to price adjustments before Oct 9, 2026.