TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 15, 3:39 PM EST
Kalshi
The event centers on a professional baseball game where an additional period of play beyond the standard duration determines a specific outcome. This additional play occurs only if the game remains tied after the regular scheduled time has elapsed. The occurrence of such extended gameplay is what defines the event's resolution.
If at least 1 extra inning is played in the Tampa Bay vs Cleveland professional baseball game originally scheduled for Oct 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals wagering their own capital, potentially leading to a more accurate assessment of the true probability. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply variations in opinion regarding the likelihood of extra innings being played.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of an extra innings game. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a 0% to 100% chance of the event occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts, the price increases, indicating growing confidence in the outcome. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. The current market price reflects the collective belief of all participants regarding the likelihood of extra innings in this baseball game.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether the Tampa Bay versus Cleveland game goes into extra innings as officially recorded by Major League Baseball. The official game results will be used to determine whether the 'yes' or 'no' outcome is triggered. The platform will verify the result against publicly available and reliable sources to ensure an accurate and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding potential pitching changes, weather forecasts impacting game conditions, or injuries to key players could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpectedly strong or weak performances from either team in preceding games might also play a role. Furthermore, general baseball news and analysis, especially concerning the teams' tendencies to play close, high-scoring games, could contribute to price movements in this market as traders react to new information.