TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 5:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks rushing performance thresholds for specific players in an upcoming football game between Tampa Bay and Carolina. It examines whether designated players achieve various yardage milestones during the full match, including overtime periods.
All markets resolve based on official game statistics for rushing yards accumulated by specified players across the entire game duration, including any overtime periods. Each contract is designated as 'protected,' meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime (including overtime), the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the exact yardage threshold is met. Actual statistics determine resolution if the player participates in any play after the first half, irrespective of first-half involvement. Penalty-nullified plays where a player lines up but the play is stopped before the snap do not count toward participation or yardage. Players who never participate are subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation exclusively applies to full-game contracts with 'above or at-least' payout criteria.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by analysts who consider various factors, while this market’s pricing is driven by the collective predictions of many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. While sportsbooks may initially focus on public perception, this market can adjust rapidly to incorporate new information and changing sentiment, potentially offering more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing potential rushing yard totals. The price of a contract indicates the probability of the total rushing yards falling within a specific range. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information, and the current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants trading in this market.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total rushing yards achieved by both teams in the game will determine the result. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL and will be considered final once those numbers are widely available and confirmed. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual rushing yard total will receive a payout.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would any changes to the expected weather conditions, which could affect the game plan. Unexpected news regarding coaching strategies or defensive matchups could also shift trader sentiment. Additionally, late-breaking news about player availability or performance could cause rapid price adjustments. Monitoring these signals and how they influence public perception is crucial for understanding potential market movements.