TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 5:05 PM EST
Kalshi
The markets focus on predicting whether specific players will achieve certain rushing yard thresholds in an upcoming football game. Outcomes depend entirely on the players' performance during the match, with detailed rules addressing scenarios where players may not participate.
All markets resolve based on whether the named player records the specified rushing yard threshold in the Tampa Bay vs Carolina professional football game scheduled for Oct 25, 2026. If a player is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before kickoff. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by penalty—the market settles strictly based on the total rushing yards they record during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all thresholds for each player, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of the yardage target.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of each venue. It's common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information emerges or as public sentiment shifts regarding the likely outcome of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yardage ranges. The price of a contract indicates the probability of the actual rushing yards falling within that range. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to incorporate new information and changing expectations, providing a real-time assessment of the likely outcome based on collective intelligence. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades are rewarded.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official rushing yardage statistics for the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL, representing the total combined rushing yards achieved by both teams during the game. The market will then pay out to contract holders based on whether the actual rushing yardage falls within the range they purchased contracts for. All trading will cease once the outcome is determined.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to and during the game. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be significant, as would any changes to the expected weather conditions, which could impact the running game. Unexpected news regarding coaching strategies or defensive matchups could also shift trader sentiment. In-game events, such as a dominant early performance by one team's rushing attack, could also cause rapid price adjustments as traders react to the unfolding events and reassess the likely total rushing yards.