TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the number of receptions specific players achieve in an upcoming football game between Tampa Bay and Carolina. The outcome depends on whether designated players meet or exceed specified reception thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but none after, including overtime, the contract resolves to the fair price unless the player meets the reception requirement, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and all statistics include overtime periods. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective predictions of many individuals. As more information becomes available – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – and as the event draws nearer, the odds on Kalshi may converge with or diverge from sportsbook odds, depending on how the crowd interprets the new data. It’s common to see prediction markets as more accurate forecasts overall.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, reflecting the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of receptions for players on both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Carolina Panthers will be used to determine the winning contracts. Official statistics from the NFL will serve as the basis for verifying the outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts shortly after the official statistics are released, ensuring a transparent and timely resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either the Buccaneers or the Panthers would likely cause movement, as would changes in the projected weather conditions for the game. Unexpected shifts in team strategy or coaching decisions could also impact the perceived likelihood of certain players receiving more or fewer targets. Finally, late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could lead to adjustments in the market as traders react to the latest information.