TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 5:04 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether specific athletes or units surpass predetermined fantasy point thresholds. The outcomes depend on detailed statistical contributions, including offensive plays, kicking efforts, and defensive achievements, all measured by a standardized fantasy-point system.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or team accumulates more than the stated fantasy points in the full game (including overtime) between Tampa Bay and Carolina on October 25, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions as outlined in the scoring format. Players who do not participate or lack a recorded value are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of game expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. All markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a small team of experts, while this market aggregates insights from many individuals. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into public sentiment and potentially identify undervalued or overvalued opportunities, though it is important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different fantasy point totals. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a higher fantasy point total, the price of those contracts increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to reflect the evolving expectations of participants, creating a real-time assessment of the likely outcome of the game based on available information and analysis.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final fantasy point totals for the Buccaneers and Panthers game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official fantasy scoring rules as defined by a major fantasy sports provider. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual total fantasy points scored will receive a payout, while those holding contracts predicting a different total will not. The precise details of the scoring system will be available on Kalshi.
Several factors could influence this market leading up to the game. News regarding key player injuries for either the Buccaneers or the Panthers would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact expectations for passing or rushing performance. Late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could also play a role. Finally, any significant shifts in public opinion, as reflected in updated sportsbook odds or expert analysis, could influence trading activity and move the price of contracts in this market.