TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$192,072,993
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,842,388,377
408,027
Markets across
40,419
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,369
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team’s defense will score the first touchdown in an upcoming NFL game. It includes scenarios where no touchdown is scored by either defense. The outcome depends strictly on the scoring sequence during the game, with specific rules for handling special cases like inactive units or nullified plays.
The event determines whether the Carolina Panthers defense, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, or neither scores the first touchdown in the NFL game scheduled for October 25, 2026. If either defense scores the first touchdown of the game, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no touchdowns are scored by either defense—and no touchdowns are scored in the game—the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. For markets involving a specific defense, if that unit is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a defense takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on whether that defense scores the first touchdown. Touchdowns scored on fake punts or offensive field goals do not count toward special teams touchdowns. All markets are independent, and the governing rules ensure clarity in edge cases such as inactive units or games with no scoring.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective beliefs of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people believe a particular player is likely to score first, the price of their contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds are constantly updated and responsive to new information.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The player who officially scores the first touchdown in the game, as recorded by official game statistics, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the official game results and any subsequent reviews by the relevant sporting authorities. Any disputes will be settled based on the official game records.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in weather conditions, or adjustments to team strategies could all cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected starting lineup announcements, particularly at the running back or wide receiver positions, would likely trigger substantial movement. Furthermore, late-breaking reports about a player's health or performance could also influence trading activity and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.