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OPEN INTEREST:
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412,077
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 6, 4:43 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Switzerland and North Macedonia, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result is determined by the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. Different thresholds define successful outcomes based on how many goals separate the winning and losing teams.
The event evaluates multiple potential score-margin outcomes from a single soccer match between Switzerland and North Macedonia, all occurring in the same official game scheduled for October 6, 2026. Resolution depends exclusively on the final score after regular time—including stoppage minutes—but excludes any extra-time periods or penalty shootouts. Four distinct primary rules define specific victory margins: Switzerland winning by more than 2.5 goals, Switzerland winning by more than 1.5 goals, North Macedonia winning by more than 1.5 goals, and North Macedonia winning by more than 2.5 goals. Any of these conditions, should they occur in the designated match, will resolve the event affirmatively. The rules clarify that the platform bears no official affiliation with the governing league, and all related trademarks remain property of their respective rights holders.
Often, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by the collective predictions of traders. If a significant number of people believe the spread is incorrect according to sportsbooks, the price will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Switzerland vs North Macedonia match. Analyzing these differences can reveal valuable insights.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different sides of the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price will fluctuate based on supply and demand; more buyers push the price up, indicating greater confidence in that outcome, while more sellers drive it down. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and collective wisdom of the crowd.
This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Switzerland vs North Macedonia match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports body. The platform will then determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range defined by the market contracts. Traders holding the winning contracts will receive a payout based on the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 7, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Switzerland or North Macedonia team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team strategy or unexpected lineup announcements could also shift trader sentiment. Even broader factors, such as weather conditions expected during the match or major shifts in public perception of either team's performance, can impact the market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for anyone looking to trade in this market.