TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 26, 2:14 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Holger Rune and Quentin Halys in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Holger Rune' if Holger Rune advances against Quentin Halys. This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Holger Rune. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Holger Rune and Quentin Halys in the Swiss Indoors Basel, originally scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Holger Rune' if Holger Rune advances against Quentin Halys. This market will resolve to 'Quentin Halys' if Quentin Halys advances against Holger Rune. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome. If a significant number of informed bettors disagree with the sportsbook, the prediction market odds will likely move in a different direction. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect true probabilities as the event approaches, especially when significant information becomes available.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the collective believes is the true probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and is not influenced by external factors or other prediction venues.
This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the Swiss Indoors Basel match between Holger Rune and Quentin Halys. The platform will verify the result against widely available sources to determine the winning player. The outcome of this market will reflect the officially recorded winner of the match.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in playing conditions, or updated match analyses from tennis experts could all cause movement. Unexpected results in other matches involving these players, or even broader tournament upsets, could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, significant betting activity—a large influx of volume on one outcome—could quickly alter the price and reflect a change in perceived probability.