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410,482
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 13, 2:54 PM EST
Kalshi
The market determines if Sweden wins the women's FIFA World Cup qualifier against Lithuania in regulation time on October 13, 2026. A win for Sweden after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties, resolves the market. If the match ends in a tie or is canceled, different outcomes apply.
The market resolves to Yes if Sweden wins the match in regulation time—after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, but not including extra time or penalties. If the game ends in a tie, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. If the game is canceled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price. The market does not include outcomes from extra time or penalty kicks.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. As such, you may find that the implied probabilities on Kalshi diverge from traditional sportsbook offerings, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts leading up to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the current market consensus on the likelihood of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded, and those with inaccurate assessments may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and efficient assessment of the event's potential results.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the regulation time moneyline result of the Sweden vs Lithuania match. This means that the outcome will be determined by which team wins the match within the standard 90 minutes of play, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts. The final result will be sourced from official sports data providers to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Oct 13, 2026. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or tactical adjustments could shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location, or even significant pre-game commentary from analysts, could also impact the market. Furthermore, large-volume trades on Kalshi from informed traders might indicate a change in sentiment, prompting others to adjust their positions and move the market price.