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Closed: Oct 13, 2:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This market settles if Sweden progresses past Lithuania in the first round of the women's FIFA World Cup qualifiers. Advancement is determined by the match result, which could include regulation time, extra time, or penalty shootouts, depending on the tiebreaker rules.
The market resolves to Yes if Sweden advances past Lithuania in the Round 1 of the FIFA World Cup Qualifiers Women, regardless of whether the advancement is determined in regulation time, extra time, or penalty shootouts. References to 'FIFA' and the 'FIFA World Cup' are descriptive and do not imply endorsement or affiliation with FIFA.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs. If a significant number of people believe an outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price on Kalshi will adjust accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the Sweden vs Lithuania match.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Sweden vs Lithuania match. The price of a contract reflects the market’s probability of that outcome occurring – a higher price indicates a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on their own analysis and information, creating a dynamic pricing mechanism. This creates a real-time assessment of the event's potential results, driven by the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Sweden vs Lithuania match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score, as reported by official sources, will determine the winning outcome. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available and independently verifiable information to ensure accuracy and fairness. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result to understand when this market will be settled.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 13, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team lineups, or changes in coaching staff for either Sweden or Lithuania could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location could also play a role. Furthermore, major upsets in other related matches or shifts in public sentiment, as reflected in polls or expert analysis, could all contribute to price movements in this market. Monitoring these signals is key to understanding potential shifts in the market’s assessment.