TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Bundesliga 2 (German second division) soccer match between SV Darmstadt 98 and Holstein Kiel scheduled for March 7, 2026. Three prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi track the outcome: Darmstadt win, draw, and Kiel win, all resolving based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket employs asymmetric cancellation logic across three binary markets (draw resolves YES on cancellation; win markets resolve NO). Kalshi's three markets are presented with overlapping YES conditions that violate mutual exclusivity, creating ambiguity about whether they are independent binaries or a single tripartite outcome.Hero Tip:
Polymarket traders should hedge cancellation risk differently for the draw market versus win markets. Kalshi traders should seek platform clarification on whether all three markets can resolve YES simultaneously or if only one outcome per match is valid. Verify Kalshi's actual settlement mechanism before trading.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Three separate binary markets with scope limited to 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Darmstadt win and Kiel win markets resolve NO if game is canceled with no makeup. Draw market resolves YES if game is canceled with no makeup. Postponement keeps markets open. Primary source: official Bundesliga statistics or credible reporting consensus within 2 hours of conclusion.Kalshi:
Three markets presented as independent YES/NO outcomes for Darmstadt win, Kiel win, and Tie, all scoped to 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Resolution logic states each resolves YES if its outcome occurs, but does not explicitly address cancellation, postponement, or mutual exclusivity. No fallback source or timing window specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Related events
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.15.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.