TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 8:58 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an upcoming professional soccer match in China's League 1, focusing on which team will secure a victory or if the game will end in a draw within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time. The resolution depends solely on the match result as it concludes in regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts. Any significant changes to the match schedule or cancellation will lead to a fair price resolution.
The event resolves based on the result of the Suzhou Dongwu vs Shijiazhuang Gongfu professional China League 1 soccer match scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Three possible outcomes are considered: a win for Suzhou Dongwu, a win for Shijiazhuang Gongfu, or a tie. If either team wins within regular time, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie after regular time, the Tie market resolves to Yes. In the event the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price. The event exclusively considers the result after regular time and does not account for extra time or penalty shootouts.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, as they aggregate the wisdom of the crowd. This is because prediction markets incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs, while sportsbooks may incorporate a profit margin or be influenced by biases. However, sportsbook odds can still provide a useful benchmark for comparison. Discrepancies between this market and sportsbook lines may signal potential value or differing perspectives on the likely outcome of the Chinese basketball match. It's important to consider both sources of information when forming your own opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing beliefs. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and trading volume indicate the level of confidence and activity surrounding each possible result in the Chinese basketball match. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions, leading to dynamic price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Suzhou Dongwu versus Shijiazhuang Gongfu basketball game. The platform will verify the final score against trusted sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders who correctly predicted the result will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on publicly available information to ensure a fair and transparent outcome for this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries, team performance, or coaching changes for either Suzhou Dongwu or Shijiazhuang Gongfu could significantly impact the odds. Unexpected announcements about game location or scheduling changes could also create movement. Furthermore, broader trends in Chinese basketball or public sentiment towards either team could play a role. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the market's price and assessing the evolving probabilities surrounding the Chinese basketball match.